Colin Dambrauskas: Flames Sign Setoguchi – NHL Changes Draft Lottery

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To see my write up on the prediction I had for the possible Setoguchi signing, please see this blog: http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=61770

I will have a writeup for you tomorrow. Today I am taking part in the LPGA activities!

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Looks like the idea of “tank nation” could be something of the past.

At least, so the NHL would like to change.

The league announced today that as of 2015, and in an effort to “more appropriately reflect the current state of competitive balance”, that they have spread out the odds of attaining the first overall pick and consequently decreased the odds for the team who finished 30th in the league during the regular season, from 25% down to 20%. In doing so, they have also increased the odds of teams outside of the top 5 “worst teams” to attain the lotto pick.

As the diagram below displays, the 14th worst team in the league who previously had a 0.5% chance to attain the first overall pick, will now be given a 1% chance, and so on so forth. And while I wouldn’t really say the 14th worst team in the league really stands a shot, how about teams 8-12 whose odds have perhaps improved enough to make a difference?

Non-Playoff Team — New Draft Lottery Odds — Odds Under Former Allocation

1…………………………………..20.0%…………………………………..25.0%

2………………………………….. 13.5%…………………………………18.8%

3………………………………….. 11.5%…………………………………14.2%

4………………………………….. 9.5%………………………………….. 10.7%

5………………………………….. 8.5% …………………………………..8.1%

6………………………………….. 7.5% …………………………………..6.2%

7………………………………….. 6.5%………………………………….. 4.7%

8………………………………….. 6.0%………………………………….. 3.6%

9………………………………….. 5.0%………………………………….. 2.7%

10………………………………….. 3.5%………………………………….. 2.1%

11………………………………….. 3.0%………………………………….. 1.5%

12………………………………….. 2.5%………………………………….. 1.1%

13………………………………….. 2.0%………………………………….. 0.8%

14………………………………….. 1.0%………………………………….. 0.5%

What’s even more interesting is that starting in 2016, we will see a significant difference in that there will be three individual draws in order to determine who drafts 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall. This essentially means that the team with the fewest points at years end, could end up as low as selecting 4th overall rather than being guaranteed the first if not second overall pick.

This makes for some interesting change, in my opinion, as the NHL is trying to steer away from the notion that if you suck hard enough, you will be guaranteed with a top 3 pick. This thought process really could no longer be the case as of 2016 with three individual drafts. Heck, we could see the 4th worst team be awarded the 1st overall pick, the 8th worst attain the 2nd overall pick, and the 6th worst club walk away with the 3rd overall draft selection.

Of course, odds are still very much in favour of the top 3 “worst clubs” each passing year, although by spreading them out a little more and providing a better chance to those teams who continued to compete despite being outside of the playoffs, I think the league is moving in the right direction here.

And while the 2015 draft should help out those 5-10th worst teams a little more, the 2016 draft should certainly see some differing trends than previous years have demonstrated; years where the three worst teams essentially ended up with the three best draft selections, as offered below.

2003 Florida Moved from 4th to 1st G Marc-Andre Fleury

2004 Washington Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Alex Ovechkin

2006 St. Louis Retained 1st selection D Erik Johnson

2007 Chicago Moved from 5th to 1st RW Patrick Kane

2008 Tampa Bay Retained 1st selection C Steven Stamkos

2009 NY Islanders Retained 1st selection C John Tavares

2010 Edmonton Retained 1st selection LW Taylor Hall

2011 New Jersey Moved from 8th to 4th D Adam Larsson

2012 Edmonton Moved from 2nd to 1st RW Nail Yakupov

2013 Colorado Moved from 2nd to 1st

As you can see, 7/10 times the worst 3 clubs of the year walked away with top 3 selections. The greatest move would be in 2011 where NJ would move from 8th to 4th, but still fell short of the top 3 positions given that they could not move up more than 4 spots. Outside of this occurrence, only once in the previous 10 drafts did someone select in the top 3 spots who was not among the three worst clubs during that respective year, when Chicago moved from 5th to 1st overall and selected Patty Kane.

What are your thoughts? poll by twiigs.com

Thanks for reading!

This post originally appeared on www.hockeybuzz.com and we thank them for permission to rebroadcast it here.

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