Heading into an action-packed weekend of Rugby World Cup warm-up matches, four nations could claim top spot in the men’s World Rugby Rankings, two of them for the first time in history.
Approaching their 10th anniversary as the number one team in the world, New Zealand’s reign at the top is now under threat from three European rivals.
Having passed up an opportunity to create history by losing to England at Twickenham last Sunday, Wales will get another chance to reach the summit by overturning that result in Cardiff on Saturday.
Similarly, an English victory in the Welsh capital by more than 15 points would see Eddie Jones’ team rise to the top for the first time since June 2004, regardless of the result between New Zealand and Australia.
As for Ireland, the number-crunching shows that a draw in Cardiff combined with a draw or Australian win in Auckland, would be enough for them to assume the number one ranking for the first time without even taking to the field.
Here are the details of all five of this weekend’s Rugby World Cup 2019 warm-up matches with key stats and rankings permutations:
NEW ZEALAND (1) V AUSTRALIA (6)
In brief
- New Zealand have won 114 tests to Australia’s 44 with seven draws
- This is Steve Hansen’s 100th test in charge of the All Blacks
- Australia managed a record 47 points in last week’s victory (47-26)
- Australia haven’t won at Eden Park since 6 September, 1986 – only three players across the two squads were born then, Adam Ashley-Cooper for Australia and Kieran Read and Sonny Bill Williams for New Zealand
- New Zealand are unbeaten at their Auckland fortress in 42 matches dating back to a 23-20 loss to France in 1994
- A Wallabies victory would see them lift the Bledisloe Cup for the first time since 2002
Rankings predictor
- New Zealand will lose the number one spot if Wales beat England
- The same applies if England win by more than 15 points, even if the All Blacks also win
- A draw in Auckland will see New Zealand drop below Ireland into third with England or Wales taking over top spot with victory
- New Zealand could drop as low as sixth if they lose by more than 15 points again and other results go against them
- Australia will swap places with South Africa if they draw and the Springboks lose
- This can also happen even if Australia lose by more than 15 points, providing South Africa lose as emphatically
- Australia could climb as high as third if they win by more than 15 points and England or Wales lose by the same margin
- The Wallabies cannot drop any lower than their present position of sixth in defeat
WALES (2) V ENGLAND (4)
In brief
- Wales and England will be meeting for the 134th time in tests; England lead the head-to-head 63-58 with 12 draws
- Wales have reeled off 10 successive victories at the Principality Stadium since defeat by New Zealand in November 2017
- England ended Wales’ record 14-match winning run with a 33-19 victory at Twickenham last weekend
- England have won five of the last six meetings between these two teams since they lost to Wales at Twickenham at Rugby World Cup 2015
- The Davies brothers, James and Jonathan, start together for the first time in a test and are the first brothers to play alongside each other for Wales since 2006
Rankings predictor
- Wales will top the rankings for the first time if they win, regardless of New Zealand’s result
- England will also top the rankings for the first time in 15 years if win by more than 15 points
- A draw in Cardiff would see Wales drop below Ireland
- Wales could slip to fifth if they lose by more than 15 points and Australia and South Africa win as emphatically
- England will swap places with South Africa if they lose and the Springboks win
SOUTH AFRICA (5) V ARGENTINA (11)
In brief
- South Africa have won 25 matches to Argentina’s three with one draw since they first started playing tests against one another in 1993
- This will be only the second time in just over 25 years that the Springboks will host Argentina at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria
- The only other test against Argentina at this venue was five years ago, on 16 August, 2014, when Jean de Villiers’ Springboks scraped home 13-6
- The Springboks have only lost once at home to Los Pumas in 12 previous encounters on South African soil, 37-25 in Durban in 2015
Rankings predictor
- South Africa will reclaim fourth place if they win and England lose
- They will also climb to fourth if they win and Wales lose by more than 15 points
- Argentina will return to ninth with victory, having fallen out of the top 10 last weekend
- If France also lose to Scotland, they will climb to eighth – the same applies if Scotland lose by more than 15 points and Argentina win by the same margin
FRANCE (8) V SCOTLAND (7)
In brief
- France have won 54 matches to Scotland’s 36 with three draws since the sides first met in 1910
- France won 27-10 when the sides met in the Six Nations in Paris earlier this year
- France have not lost to Scotland on home soil in 20 years, a run that stretches to 11 matches
- This is the first time the countries have met in Nice on the French Riviera
Rankings predictor
- France and Scotland will swap places if Les Bleus win
- France will fall to ninth if they lose and Argentina beat South Africa
- Scotland could also drop to ninth if they lose by more than 15 points and Argentina win by the same margin
- Scotland cannot climb any higher than their present position of seventh
ITALY (13) V RUSSIA (20)
In brief
- Italy have won all four previous encounters with Russia, averaging nearly 50 points per game
- Italy won 53-17 the last time the sides met in Nelson, New Zealand, at RWC 2011
- Russia beat Namibia 20-0 in their last international in June
Rankings predictor
- An Italy victory will have no impact on the rankings
- A draw will see Italy fall two to 15th and Russia climb above Uruguay
- Russia will climb two places with a first-ever victory over the Azzurri with Italy falling two or three places depending on the margin
- Italy will fall to their lowest ever ranking of 16th if lose by more than 15 points
The World Rugby Rankings are officially updated at 12 noon Dublin time every Monday.
Full Rankings
| Position | Teams | Points | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
|
89.04 | ||
| 2 |
|
|
88.89 | ||
| 3 |
|
|
88.69 | ||
| 4 |
|
|
87.34 | ||
| 5 |
|
|
86.83 | ||
| 6 |
|
|
84.41 | ||
| 7 |
|
|
80.17 | ||
| 8 |
|
|
79.42 | ||
| 9 |
|
|
77.21 | ||
| 10 |
|
|
76.98 | ||
| 11 |
|
|
76.29 | ||
| 12 |
|
|
74.42 | ||
| 13 |
|
|
72.04 | ||
| 14 |
|
|
71.93 | ||
| 15 |
|
|
71.49 | ||
| 16 |
|
|
69.08 | ||
| 17 |
|
|
68.15 | ||
| 18 |
|
|
66.69 | ||
| 19 |
|
|
65.18 | ||
| 20 |
|
|
64.81 | ||
| 21 |
|
|
61.36 | ||
| 22 |
|
|
61.33 | ||
| 23 |
|
|
61.01 | ||
| 24 |
|
|
59.64 | ||
| 25 |
|
|
58.46 | ||
| 26 |
|
|
57.84 | ||
| 27 |
|
|
57.35 | ||
| 28 |
|
|
54.96 | ||
| 29 |
|
|
54.56 | ||
| 30 |
|
|
53.19 | ||
| 31 |
|
|
53.11 | ||
| 32 |
|
|
51.44 | ||
| 33 |
|
|
51.42 | ||
| 34 |
|
|
50.76 | ||
| 35 |
|
|
50.59 | ||
| 36 |
|
|
49.45 | ||
| 37 |
|
|
49.25 | ||
| 38 |
|
|
49.05 | ||
| 39 |
|
|
48.82 | ||
| 40 |
|
|
48.53 | ||
| 41 |
|
|
47.77 | ||
| 42 |
|
|
47.62 | ||
| 43 |
|
|
47.57 | ||
| 44 |
|
|
47.00 | ||
| 45 |
|
|
46.69 | ||
| 46 |
|
|
46.52 | ||
| 47 |
|
|
46.33 | ||
| 48 |
|
|
46.12 | ||
| 49 |
|
|
45.98 | ||
| 50 |
|
|
45.94 | ||
| 51 |
|
|
45.66 | ||
| 52 |
|
|
45.51 | ||
| 53 |
|
|
45.34 | ||
| 54 |
|
|
45.11 | ||
| 55 |
|
|
44.82 | ||
| 56 |
|
|
44.06 | ||
| 57 |
|
|
43.97 | ||
| 58 |
|
|
43.44 | ||
| 59 |
|
|
42.55 | ||
| 60 |
|
|
42.40 | ||
| 61 |
|
|
42.17 | ||
| 62 |
|
|
41.87 | ||
| 63 |
|
|
41.25 | ||
| 64 |
|
|
40.85 | ||
| 65 |
|
|
39.65 | ||
| 66 |
|
|
39.10 | ||
| 67 |
|
|
39.00 | ||
| 68 |
|
|
38.95 | ||
| 69 |
|
|
38.91 | ||
| 70 |
|
|
38.41 | ||
| 71 |
|
|
37.77 | ||
| 72 |
|
|
37.64 | ||
| 73 |
|
|
36.97 | ||
| 74 |
|
|
36.40 | ||
| 75 |
|
|
36.23 | ||
| 76 |
|
|
36.16 | ||
| 77 |
|
|
36.13 | ||
| 78 |
|
|
35.72 | ||
| 79 |
|
|
34.91 | ||
| 80 |
|
|
34.85 | ||
| 81 |
|
|
34.72 | ||
| 82 |
|
|
33.79 | ||
| 83 |
|
|
33.76 | ||
| 84 |
|
|
33.45 | ||
| 85 |
|
|
33.27 | ||
| 86 |
|
|
33.07 | ||
| 87 |
|
|
33.07 | ||
| 88 |
|
|
32.56 | ||
| 89 |
|
|
32.04 | ||
| 90 |
|
|
31.64 | ||
| 91 |
|
|
31.63 | ||
| 92 |
|
|
31.18 | ||
| 93 |
|
|
30.56 | ||
| 94 |
|
|
30.40 | ||
| 95 |
|
|
29.81 | ||
| 96 |
|
|
29.78 | ||
| 97 |
|
|
29.57 | ||
| 98 |
|
|
28.45 | ||
| 99 |
|
|
26.33 | ||
| 100 |
|
|
24.40 | ||
| 101 |
|
|
23.17 | ||
| 102 |
|
|
22.55 | ||
| 103 |
|
|
21.89 | ||
| 104 |
|
|
21.45 | ||
| 105 |
|
|
19.53 |